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Stock Market Watch for the Week of January 21st

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Stocks remain strong after three weeks of trading. The S&P 500 is up around 14% since December 24th. That said, there is still plenty of uncertainty in the market, including the government shutdown, Brexit, and trade talks between China.

China just posted its GDP numbers for 2018, 6.6% growth, its weakest annual performance since 1990.

However, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom. For example, members of the FOMC continue to come out and assure the market that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates this year. In addition, corporate earnings kicked off last week… and so far so good.

graph

Source: Yahoo

The VIX closed at 17.80 on Friday. A far cry from 36, where it was on Dec 24.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +2.89%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +2.54%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +2.99%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +2.84%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +3.76%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) -1.13%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -0.64%

Economic Releases:
22 Jan 2019- Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

24 Jan 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

25 Jan 2019- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
22 Jan 2019- JNJ, HAL, STLD, SWK, UBS, AMTD, IBM, NAVI, ZION

23 Jan 2019- CMCSA, KMB, NTRS, PG, RES, WAT, CCI, F, FFIV, XLNX

24 Jan 2019- FCX, HBAN, JBLU, LUV, STM, TXT, UNP, DFS, NSC, SBUX, WDC

25 Jan 2019- APD, CL, LEA, SYF

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Week of January 14th Stock Market Watch

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Two weeks in, and the stock market is off to an impressive start to the year, led by the Russell 2000 which is up over 7% year-to-date. That said, all major stock indices are positive in 2019. However, the true test comes now, as we enter earnings season.

Big Stories from last week:

  • The government remains shutdown
  • Fed Chairman Powell reassured Wall Street that he’ll remain patient about raising rates
  • Oil prices continue to rally, 9/10 winning days
  • Trade talks between the US and China keep moving slowly

That said, a lot of the major fears we had right before Christmas, seem to be subsiding.

graph

Source: Yahoo

The VIX closed at 18.19 on Friday. A far cry from 36, where it was on Dec 24.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +2.6%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +4.73%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +2.39%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +2.85%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +7.07%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) -0.97%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +0.30%

Economic Releases:
15 Jan 2019- PPI 8:30 AM ET

16 Jan 2019- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

17 Jan 2019- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET; Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Philly Fed Survey 8:30 AM ET

18 Jan 2019- Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

Key Earnings:
15 Jan 2019- DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC, UAL

16 Jan 2019- BAC, BK, GS, USB, SCHW, CSX, AA

17 Jan 2019- FAST, KEYS, TSM, AXP, NFLX, JBHT, OZK, RIO

18 Jan 2019- KSU, SLB, VFC, STT, RFF

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Week of January 7th Stock Market Watch

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Stocks closed their first week of 2019 in positive territory. However, they needed a heroic effort, in which they got on Friday, with the Dow rising 746 points and the Nasdaq surging by 275 points.

The catalyst?

The Fed, of course. In an interview on Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, said the Fed will remain patient regarding further rate hikes.

Despite the positive news. There is still uncertainty in the market. For example, the government is still shut down.

trump wall
Source: twitter

Also, the market is concerned about how trade talks between the US and China turn out. A trade war could weaken markets, while a resolution could lift them higher.

That said, there seems to be less fear in the market, thanks to Powell’s interview. The VIX closed at 21.38 on Friday. That’s a drop of 24.5% from last week.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +1.74%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +3.56%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +1.31%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +2.08%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +5.82%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +1.72%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +0.72%

Economic Releases:
8 Jan 2019- International Trade 8:30 AM ET

9 Jan 2019- EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET; FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

10 Jan 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Jerome Powell Speaks 12:45 PM ET

11 Jan 2019- CPI 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
7 Jan 2019- JAGX

8 Jan 2019- HELE, AZZ, LNN, SGH

9 Jan 2019- AYI, GBX, LEN, MSM, STZ, SCHN, BBBY, FC, KBH, PSMT

10 Jan 2019- DAL, FCEL, SNX

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Week of December 31st Stock Market Watch

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There is just one more trading day left in what has been a wild ride for stocks this December. Typically, when we get close to year-end, trading volume and volatility dies down. However, that has not been the case this year. In fact, the day after Christmas the Dow had its largest gain in history (+1,000 pts). Despite the gains stocks had after Christmas, they still finished relatively flat on the week.

Here are some of the main concerns investors are having right now:

  • The government shutdown
  • Rising interest rates
  • Trade disputes with China (tariffs)
  • Fears of an economic downturn
  • Loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve Bank
  • Crashing oil prices
  • Uncertainty with Brexit

The VIX closed at 28.34 on Friday. That said, traders appear to embracing the shift from low volatility to high.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +0.23%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +0.81%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +0.69%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +0.45%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -1.95%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.26%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +1.53%

This is a shortened week for the stock market, as it’s closed on New Years Day.

Economic Releases:
3 Jan 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

4 Jan 2019- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
3 Jan 2019- RECN

4 Jan 2019- LW

From all of us at TVC, have a happy, healthy, and profitable New Year.

Week of December 24th Stock Market Watch

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Stocks continue to sell off as we head into Christmas and New Year’s. If the situation doesn’t improve, this will be the worst year for stocks since 2008. Over the last week, stocks like Alibaba, Amazon, Facebook, and Unitedhealth fell by more than 10%.

That said, there are a number of reasons to hate this market, they include:

  • The government shutdown
  • Rising interest rates
  • Fears of an economic downturn
  • Loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve Bank
  • Crashing oil prices
  • Uncertainty with Brexit

It’s probably safe to say, there will be on Santa Claus rally this year…

The VIX closed at 30.11 on Friday. Last week we mentioned that when VIX gets above 30 and above, the market is in state of panic. Well, welcome to the panic room.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -7.59, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) -8.70%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) -7.18%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) -8.39%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -11.55%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +1.89%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +1.42%

The markets will be open for a half day on Monday, and closed on Tuesday, for the Christmas holiday.

Economic Releases:
27 Dec 2018- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

28 Dec 2018- International Trade In Goods 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
None

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Week of December 17th Stock Market Watch

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Stocks came under heavy selling pressure on Friday, as they closed lower for the second straight week. Traders and investors are concerned about the trade dispute between China and the U.S., rising interest rates, and fears of a U.S. government shutdown. Other concerns include the U.K. Brexit vote, and Italy’s budget issues.

Small cap stocks were among the weakest, as the Russell 2000 Index hit 52-week lows.
Among the losers included: Wells Fargo -7.4%, FedEx -8.58%, Best Buy -8.6%, and Tilray -25.06%. However, not all stocks performed poorly. For example, winners included: Twitter +9.26%, Facebook +4.83%, and Huya +24.83%

The VIX closed at 21.63 on Friday. A sign that traders have a concern, but nowhere near panic levels, which would be anything above 30.

graph

Crude oil futures prices are starting to stabilize near $50; they closed at $51.40 on Friday. That’s well off it’s October highs of $76.39.

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -2.61%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.06%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -0.87%

The number one event traders will focus on next week will be the FOMC Meeting Announcement, held on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to raise rates at the meeting. However, everyone will be listening to its forecast, and the Fed Chair press conference, held right after the announcement, for further clues on what the Fed does next.

Economic Releases:
18 Dec 2018- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET

19 Dec 2018- Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET; FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET

20 Dec 2018- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Philly Fed Business Survey 8:30 AM ET

21 Dec 2018- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; GDP 8:30 AM ET; Personal Income and Outlays 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
17 Dec 2018- LAKE, ORCL, RHT

18 Dec 2018- NAV, FDS, DRI, FDX, JBL, MU, SCS

19 Dec 2018- GIS, PAYX, PIR, RAD

20 Dec 2018- APOG, ATU, CAG, SAFM, WBA, NKE, CAMP

21 Dec 2018- KMX

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Week of December 10th Stock Market Watch

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Stocks suffered significant losses over the week, as market sentiment turns bearish. The Nasdaq fell by more than 4%, the S&P 500 and Dow each lost more than 3.5% on the week. Among the losers included: Bank of America -9.3%, Apple -6.1%, Ulta Beauty -15.2%, and Square -13.05%.

The trade war between the U.S. and China, and the fear of more interest rate hikes are some of the reasons why stocks have been selling off.

However, it comes after Fed President Jerome Powell publicly saying that interest rates are just below neutral, and China and the U.S. announcing a temporary trade truce. That said, with the yield curve flattening, traders can expect to see more volatility.

The VIX closed at 23.23 on Friday.

graph

In commodity news, OPEC announced that it would be cutting oil production, a move that should keep prices stable after declining to nearly $50 per barrel.

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +2.21%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +3.05%. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +2.03%

Economic Releases:
11 Dec 2018- PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET

12 Dec 2018- CPI 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

13 Dec 2018- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

14 Dec 2018- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET; Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

Key Earnings:
10 Dec 2018- SFIX, ASNA, CASY, SEAC

11 Dec 2018- DSW, FRAN, AEO, PLAY, PWOL, PVTL

12 Dec 2018- PLAB, VRA, TLRD, NCS, OXM

13 Dec 2018- CIEN, FRED, VNCE, ADBE, COST, LRAD

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Week of December 3rd Stock Market Watch

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All three major stock indices posted large gains this week, led by the Nasdaq which surged by more than 6%. After a brutal October, stock investors are starting to get optimistic again. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish comments lifted stocks higher.

The market has been declining on fears that further rate hikes will slow down the economy, but Powell’s comments helped calm those fears when he said that interest rates are just below level.

Another cloud that has been hanging over stocks has been the ongoing “trade war” between the U.S. and China. That said, over the weekend leaders from both countries met at the G20 meeting, and agreed to a ceasefire. Futures on Sunday are reacting very well to the news.

The VIX is back below 20 now, closing at 18.07 on Friday. It should continue to decline now that fears of a trade war have subsided.

graph

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -0.92%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.17%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -0.20%

The stock market will be closed on Wednesday, in honor of the passing of former President of the United States, George H.W. Bush.

Economic Releases:
3 Dec 2018- ISM Manufacturing 10:00 AM ET

5 Dec 2018- EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

6 Dec 2018- International Trade 8:30 AM ET; Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

7 Dec 2018- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
3 Dec 2018- FNSR, COUP

4 Dec 2018- BMO, AZO, CONN, DG, MOV, HOME, HPE, MDB, MRVL, RH, TOL, ZS

5 Dec 2018- AEO, MOMO, CLDR, FIVE, HRB, LULU, SNPS, UNFI, VRNT

6 Dec 2018- KR, MIK, SIG, THO, TTC, AOBC, SAIC, ULTA, GCO, SAIC

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Week of November 26th Stock Market Watch

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All three major stock indices post losses this week, led by the Nasdaq which declined by more than 4%. That said, the Nasdaq has now dipped below its October lows. The S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrials are closely approaching their October lows as well. Traders will be watching to see if the market bounces or takes another leg higher.

That said, market sentiment is favoring the bears. Fears of an economic slowdown have helped push oil prices to its lowest levels in over a year. All eyes turn to the G20 meeting set for Friday. The world will be watching to see if anything comes out of the meeting and if President Trump can come to terms with the Chinese on trade.

Retailers like many stocks in the stock market got walloped last week. However, traders will be paying attention to sales numbers that come out of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks this week. Fears of rising rates have helped keep the bears in charge. However, if Powell decides to tone down his rhetoric, it could slow down the selling pressure we’ve seen since October.

The VIX is back above 20 now, closing at 21.52 on Friday. An elevated VIX means that traders are willing to pay up for portfolio protection, a sign that fears of a further sell-off are rising.

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -9.6%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.96%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +0.87%

graph

Economic Releases:
28 Nov 2018- GDP 8:30 AM ET; International Trade 8:30 AM ET; New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

29 Nov 2018- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET; FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

Key Earnings:
26 Nov 2018- JKS, BKE

27 Nov 2018- CBRL, HIBB, CRM, SMRT,

28 Nov 2018- BURL, DKS, SJM, TIF, WB, LZB, VEEV

29 Nov 2018- ANF, DLTR, EXPR, PDCO, TD, TTN, AMBA, HPQ, PAGS, PANW, SPLK, VMW, WDAY, YEXT

30 Nov 2018- CTRN

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Week of November 19th Stock Market Watch

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All three major stock indices post losses this week, led by the Nasdaq which declined by 2.34%. Despite the sell-off, the VIX remains below 20, a sign that traders are not panicking yet. That said, markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving (markets closed) and have a half-day on Friday.

Stocks worth watching this week for earnings include Foot Locker, Gap Stores, Target, and Best Buy.

Also, traders will be paying attention to any news pertaining to trade. President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese officials later this month at the G20. However, anything said between that time has the potential to influence market volatility.

Moving on.

Stocks making moves last week included PCG -38.8%, JWN +22%, NVDA -20%, GOOS +16.7%, and TSRO +39.2%

The VIX closed below 20 for the third straight week, as it finished Friday’s trading at 18.14.

graph

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -4.96%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +1.9%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +1.00%

Economic Releases:
20 Nov 2018- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET

21 Nov 2018- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
19 Nov 2018- A, INTU, JACK, LB, URBN, SPB

20 Nov 2018- ADI, BBY, CPB, KSS, LOW, ROST, TGT, TJX, ADSK, BJ, GL, GPS, RAVN

21 Nov 2018- DE, A

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